Monday Macro View
FSC added 7 spreads week-over-week; FJC jumped as well. But here's the number that matters: early 2026 momentum is running at 2.6% versus just 1.0% last year more than double the pace. Operators are completing nearly the same frac jobs with far fewer active spreads. Is this genuine efficiency gains finally compounding? Operators front-loading ahead of anticipated price weakness? Or something else entirely about where the smart money sees H2 heading? Read our Monday Macro View to find out more.*
Market Sentiment Tracker
Tariffs, inflation prints, payrolls—none of it matters if the first missile flies toward Tehran. We ran original simulations across three escalation scenarios: a contained strike pushes Brent to $85; Iranian retaliation disrupting 30% of Hormuz flow sends it to $100 and CPI to 3.2%; a full blockade—geometrically plausible given the Strait's 21-mile width—takes oil to $150 and inflation to 4.6%. History says Scenario 2 is most likely. But which variables could tip it toward the nightmare case? And what's the Fed's actual playbook if we get there? This week's Market Sentiment Tracker works through it.*
Take Three: Liberty Energy & Baker Hughes
Two companies, two diverging capital stories - same valuation question. Liberty is holding completions flat while targeting 3 gigawatts of distributed power by 2029. Baker Hughes just booked $1 billion in data center-linked orders and is doubling NovaLT capacity by mid-2027. Both screen overvalued versus peers. So what exactly is the market paying for? Execution that's already visible, or power optionality that hasn't hit the income statement yet? And if frac supply tightens while these power bets mature, who's positioned to capture both sides? Read our Take Three for Liberty and Baker Hughes.*
Free Read: Who's Absorbing the Glut?
China imported a record 11.6 million barrels per day last year—yet roughly 1.1 million flowed into storage. With 169 million barrels of new capacity planned and facilities under 60% full, Beijing has room to keep buying. But storage has limits. Peak demand projections keep moving forward. And 72% of oil-on-water is sanctioned crude stuck in logistical limbo. Is the glut real or a statistical artifact of barrels that can't actually clear? Read the full piece.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
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