In this week’s Monday Macro View, the latest field data show U.S. shale maintaining record-high September output at 13.844 mb/d, outperforming the November STEO by 59 kb/d. Once again, Primary Vision’s activity metrics captured this trend: the Frac Spread Count held at 173 and the Frac Job Count rose to almost the same level as last year. These numbers indicate that operators are sustaining volumes by pushing more completions through a stable spread fleet. Policy support from the OBBBA and measurable digital efficiency gains including 10–20% cost reductions and 15–25% declines in non-productive time help explain why activity remains resilient even as rigs, DUCs, and localized productivity show signs of flattening.
The Market Sentiment Tracker places this in a broader macro setting. The United States moves toward 2026 with stable consumption and manufacturing, suggesting steady but modest growth if household conditions hold. Europe faces tighter constraints, with projected GDP growth near 1.2% and export-driven industries still under pressure despite lower energy costs. China mixes strong external performance - a 5.9% November export gain and a US$1 trillion eleven-month surplus - with weak domestic demand, raising the likelihood that 2026 growth settles near 4.4–4.5% without additional stimulus. The divergence across economies implies that operators and service companies will navigate uneven demand signals rather than a single global trend.
Recent company insights shed further light on this divergence. RPC continues to prioritize discipline, idling one fleet in October, managing costs, and shifting toward lower-capex service lines while advancing technologies such as its A10 motor and Unplugged drill-out solution. Solid liquidity and a 2025 capex range of $170–$190 million support this measured approach. ProPetro is operating 10–11 spreads with roughly 70% of horsepower contracted, maintaining activity despite weak Permian completions. Its PROPWR business is expanding rapidly, with more than 150 MW of contracted power and a path to 360 MW by early 2027. Management is emphasizing capital-light growth and preserving flexibility while the market works through mid-2026 softness.
This week, we also have a Free Read for our readers. It highlights the major debates in the oil industry and tracks oil supply glut alongwith OPEC+ dynamics. A must read for anyone trying to understand the market as we enter 2026. We will be writing another Free Read on Russian oil flows as well. Stay tuned.
Finally, our recent Third Party Opinion webinar with Bloomberg encompassed all of the above discussion and shifts, with the analysis centered on how policy, technology and regional dispersion are beginning to redefine the sector’s operating baseline. The insights offered a timely framework for interpreting the signals emerging as 2026 approaches.