This week’s Monday Macro View shows that the recent dip in completions was largely seasonal rather than structural, with Frac Spread Count rising by 3 spreads week over week and Frac Job Count also registering a decent increase. As the U.S. rig count continued to fall, the data reinforce that operators continue to enjoy efficiency gains. When mapped at the basin level, FSC and FJC trends—available to subscribers via EFARCS—once again align closely with realized production. U.S. oil output rose by 31 kb/d in October to a record 13,870 kb/d, with the entire net increase driven by New Mexico, while Texas volumes declined. FSC and FJC correctly pointed to this divergence.
In the Market Sentiment Tracker we looked at the employment trends. U.S. output has remained firm even as hiring slowed materially in 2025. December payroll growth came in at just 50,000 jobs, and average monthly job creation for the year was roughly 49,000, a sharp step down from 2024. Despite that slowdown, unemployment held near 4.4%. The gap has been filled by productivity, which surged at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter. Will this trend continue? Read the article to find out.
We also have a special report that examines whether there is a Shale Revolution happening in China as well? Shale oil output in China rose about 30% year over year in 2024 to roughly 120,000 bpd, reflecting steady investment by state-owned producers and improving technical results. However, scale remains limited. Most shale projects produce between 10,000 and 50,000 bpd, and even recent discoveries are years away from large-scale development. But this is an important trend that we need to pay attention to.
Taken together, the data point to stability built on precision. Output can be sustained at current levels. For the U.S. economy neither labor nor the capacity suggests much room for error as 2026 unfolds.