Welcome to the first newsletter of 2026. Monday Macro View opens the year in a controlled range. Frac Spread Count came in at 153, down one week over week, while Frac Job Count eased extending a late-2025 pattern. We expect both metrics to retrace upwards in the coming weeks Venezuelan oil is also in focus, as output fell sharply in late December. Africa remains in the news as well, continuing to build medium-term momentum through regulatory reform and project development.
As it is the new year, we have something new for our readers. In “How Pressure Pumpers Are Rewriting the Shale Playbook,” we highlight that frac job count data through November indicate activity has moved off earlier highs and into a lower, more competitive run-rate. The simultaneous rollover across multiple large pressure pumpers suggests this reflects market conditions and basin-level allocation rather than company-specific issues. The data also show that incremental utilization is increasingly influenced by gas-weighted basins, and companies are responding by broadening business models beyond frac to improve earnings stability.
Another special read, “Mapping U.S. Shale Resilience: Latest Projects,” digs deeper into U.S. shale projects through a breakeven lens and shows that economics begin to challenge resilience as prices move below $55 crude or under a 20% cost inflation scenario. Operators with core Permian exposure and diversified shale portfolios retain greater flexibility to sustain selective activity. The work underscores that basin quality, inventory depth, and scale increasingly shape durability as margins narrow.
Finally, the Market Sentiment Tracker shows that global growth expectations continue to run ahead of underlying adjustment. In the U.S., contracting manufacturing alongside elevated prices paid raises the risk of policy remaining restrictive longer than markets expect. Europe’s weak industrial core limits self-sustaining growth, while China’s stabilization remains production-led, leaving confidence and consumption lagging.
Finally, this week’s Free Read answers the key question on everyone’s mind: What will it take to re-haul Venezuela’s oil infrastructure?