Monday Macro View – Has the Downturn Been Seasonal All Along?
FSC is up by 8 and FJC registered double digit gains. The recovery we flagged when Fern hit is playing out. But another question sits just underneath: Chevron is back in Libya, Vaca Muerta crossed 7 bcf/d two years ahead of schedule, international commitments accelerating. Are operators diversifying because the opportunity is there — or because domestic inventory depth is less comfortable than the headline numbers suggest? Read our Monday Macro View* to find out more.
Market Sentiment Tracker – Strong Jobs, Weak Spending—Which One's Real?
Payrolls beat by nearly double. Retail sales printed zero, home sales fell 8.4%. China is injecting 7.22 trillion yuan into an economy where property prices keep falling anyway. How do you square strong employment with consumers who've effectively stopped spending and what does the bond market know that the payroll survey doesn't? This week's Market Sentiment Tracker* works through it.
Shale Efficiency - Structural Gain or Favorable Timing?
Production per frac spread is up since 2022 — the efficiency narrative is real. But is it durable? When gas prices fell and operators pulled back, did Haynesville get more productive or just quieter? The Permian holds up under scrutiny. Most gas-weighted basins don't. Which operators have genuinely embedded efficiency, and which are one down-cycle away from giving it back? Read the full analysis*.
Take Three – ProPetro: Completions Plateau, Power Builds
Revenue down 1%, EBITDA up 46% — the completions business is being managed, not grown. $250–$275 million of 2026 capex flows to PROPWR, targeting a gigawatt by 2030. Is PUMP building a power platform because the frac market has a ceiling — or because data center demand is simply a better growth thesis? Read our Take Three*.
The Strait of Hormuz: Symbolic Power vs. Physical Reality
U.S. production at record highs, China sitting on 121 days of import coverage, supply diversification accelerating on both sides. With the global oil market looking structurally different than it did a decade ago, is the Strait of Hormuz still the choke point everyone assumes it is — or is its power now more psychological than physical? Read the full piece.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
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