This is the last newsletter of 2025, and it offers some clear insights into what we learned from shale this year. Frac Spread Count ended the year at 154, down six on the week, while Frac Job Count remained steady vs last year, even with a WoW drop. The key takeaways were threefold. First, longer and larger frac jobs are becoming more common. Second, production trends are shaped by far more than oil prices alone, with technology, automation, and AI improving planning, execution, and recovery rates. Third, U.S. shale has focused on unlocking more oil through improved consumables and more efficient deployment of horsepower capacity, weakening the traditional linkage between price signals and short-term activity.
We also tracked more than 900 macro indicators globally and ran a weighted impact analysis to understand demand risk beneath the headlines. In the U.S., inflation-related indicators roughly 30% of total weight were 65–70% bullish as price pressures eased, while labor (25% weight) skewed nearly 60% bearish and housing remained the biggest drag with roughly 70–75% negative signals. China’s data stabilized but did not recover: 75–80% of high-impact credit and investment indicators stayed bearish, offset only partially by exports. Europe showed progress on disinflation, but growth indicators remained fragile, leaving the region policy-dependent rather than self-sustaining.
That macro backdrop carried directly into our work on the OFS industry where we created an OFS Ranking, a scorecard built to highlight which business models are best positioned in the current cycle. TechnipFMC stood out as the clearest structural leader, followed by Halliburton and NOV on execution and diversification. Pressure-focused names remained constrained. ProFrac illustrated the challenge well: improving operations and cost control, but still screening expensive versus peers because structure ultimately caps upside.
It was also great to share an end-of-year Free Readwith our readers on what will drive oil markets in 2026, pulling together inventories, non-OPEC supply growth, geopolitics, and China’s inventory strategy as the key swing factors. Taken together, these dynamics point to a market that may look calm on the surface but has a lot moving underneath, making close observation essential rather than optional. Wishing everyone the very best as we head into 2026.