Monday Macro View: U.S. Completions Near Annual Highs

Primary Vision's latest Frac Spread Count (FSC) increased by seven to 203 for the week ending October 9, while the Frac Job Count (FJC) also advanced by seven to 247. Both indicators are approaching their 2026 highs, recorded on July 2 at 205 and 248, respectively. After declining to 178 spreads and 222 jobs in early September, national activity has recovered by approximately 14% in just five weeks. The magnitude and speed of this recovery are noteworthy, particularly when examined against the geographical distribution of completions and the industry's drilling activity.

The Permian accounted for five of the seven additional spreads and five additional jobs during the latest reporting week. Its FSC reached 93 and FJC increased to 127, establishing new annual highs for both indicators. Since early September, the basin has added 13 spreads, representing 52% of the national recovery. However, its contribution to year-to-date growth presents a different picture. Of the 47 additional spreads deployed nationally since the beginning of 2026, 21 came from the Permian, equivalent to approximately 45%. Other basins have also contributed to the broader expansion. Appalachian FSC increased from 14 at the beginning of January to 23, a gain of 64%, while Western Gulf advanced from 15 to 22, approximately 47%. Williston reached 19 spreads, compared with 14 at the beginning of the year, although its activity has been more volatile. These comparisons reveal an important distinction: the recovery during 2026 has involved several producing regions, whereas the latest acceleration has become increasingly concentrated in the Permian.

Drilling activity adds another dimension. National rig counts increased from 544 at the beginning of the year to 603, representing growth of approximately 11%, compared with a 30% increase in FSC and 27% in FJC. The different rates of expansion suggest that completions activity has recovered more strongly in percentage terms than drilling. However, the relationship should be interpreted within the industry's development cycle. Drilling precedes completions, and changes in the two indicators need not occur simultaneously.

The Permian provides a useful example. Its rig count has increased from 244 to 274 during 2026, or approximately 12%, while FSC advanced by 29%. Meanwhile, the basin's share of national FSC has remained relatively stable, moving from approximately 46% at the beginning of the year to the same proportion in October. This suggests that the Permian's contribution to the broader recovery has been substantial without fundamentally changing its share of national completion capacity. Its dominance in the latest weekly gains therefore needs to be distinguished from a longer-term structural shift in the industry's geographical composition.

Another useful comparison is with the July peak. National FSC is now only two spreads below that level, while the rig count has risen further. The industry has effectively returned to its earlier completions high with a larger drilling base. This creates an important question about the sustainability of current activity: whether the recent recovery represents a temporary acceleration in completion schedules or the beginning of a more sustained period of development.

The distinction will become clearer as additional weekly observations emerge. If FSC and FJC remain near their annual highs while rig counts continue rising, the recovery will have demonstrated greater persistence across different stages of well development. Conversely, another decline in completions despite sustained drilling would suggest that operators are managing the timing of development more selectively.

For now, Primary Vision's data indicate that U.S. completions are approaching their strongest levels of 2026, but the composition of that recovery remains as important as its size. Whether the Permian continues to account for most incremental activity, or whether other basins resume their earlier contributions, will be central to assessing the durability of this expansion.