Looking Past the Production Data

Monday Macro View (Special Report): Did U.S. Shale Really Fail to Respond to the 2026 Oil Shock?
The Frac Spread Count rose by 3 this week to 187. That is well above the 167 recorded before the Iran conflict began, though below July's peak of 205. Some research concludes that shale's short-run response to the oil shock was close to zero, but our completion data points to a different picture. Which signal should we trust, and what does the gap tell us about how shale responds to price? Read this week's MMV.

Market Sentiment Tracker: Who Is Paying for the Oil Shock?
Three economies are absorbing the same oil shock, but the cost lands in different places: Chinese factories, U.S. households and European real incomes. Why is the Fed less tied to oil than markets assume? Which central bank depends most on Brent? And how long can Chinese industry keep absorbing costs? Read this week's Market Sentiment Tracker.

THE SPR SERIES | Part 2: The SPR's Shrinking Buffer
The reserve stands at 289.7 million barrels, 54% below its 2019–2021 average. More than a quarter was unavailable for drawdown last December, and fill capability runs at 56% of design. How quickly can the planned 200-million-barrel refill happen, and what does a smaller buffer mean for the next disruption? Read Part 2. Missed Part 1? Read it free.

Shale Activity Remains Highly Concentrated
The Permian accounts for a major share of frac jobs across the six leading basins, and several private operators rank among the most active. But frac jobs do not measure production share, and some names in the data now sit inside larger companies. So who actually controls the barrels? Read the article here.

Can the U.S. Shale Model Translate to Beetaloo?
Liberty completed 178 stages across three wells in Tamboran's Shenandoah South campaign, including a 12-stage day. The 6.7-stage daily average may matter more than the record. Is that performance repeatable? With well costs still needing to fall 40–60%, how quickly can Beetaloo close the gap with U.S. basins? Read the full analysis free.

FREE READ: Oil Is Falling. But Has the Physical Market Really Changed?
Brent has slipped toward $97 as Saudi flows recover and diplomacy gains traction. The physical market disagrees. ESPO has traded above $120, European gasoil is at a record premium, and a U.S. diesel export restriction could tighten supply further. Is the futures market moving ahead of physical reality? Read the full article free.