Monday Macro View - Has the U.S. shale peaked?
The U.S. shale peak narrative is back. In 2015–2016, similar data prompted identical conclusions, only for production to later exceed prior highs. Frac job counts are down 30% in 2025 from 2019, while production rose from 12.3 mbpd (in 2019) to 13.6 mbpd. Implied productivity per frac job increased roughly 60%. Is this a managed plateau or structural exhaustion? Read our Monday Macro View to find out more.
Market Sentiment Tracker – Labor weakens, but composition matters
ADP printed just 22,000 jobs while JOLTS openings fell 10% below expectations and Challenger cuts tripled year-over-year. Yet services PMIs held above 50, and consumer sentiment ticked higher. The labor market is transitioning from tight to slack, but at what speed? Does the velocity leave room for a soft landing or force policy error? We examine the implications in this week's Market Sentiment Tracker.
Devon–Coterra Merger
Devon–Coterra's proposed merger targets ~1.6 MMboe/d and $500 million+ in synergies. The emphasis is on scale and cash flow stability, not production growth. Is this a platform-building move for a maturing U.S. onshore landscape—or a signal that organic growth options are exhausted? Does consolidation create value, or just redistribute it? Read our latest to find out.
Take Three – BP pauses and pulls back
BP posted a $3.1 billion Q4 loss driven by impairments. Buybacks paused, cost cuts targeted at $5.5–6.5 billion by 2027. Is this smart discipline or forced retreat? Can BP grow from here? Read our BP Take Three.
Enterprise Subscribers: 2026 U.S. Oil Production Outlook – Our annual deep dive
Our annual report is now live. EFRACS basin-level projections show Frac Spread Counts holding steady while Job Counts rise through the year. Higher jobs without fleet expansion means operators are doing more work to offset base declines. Operator guidance, Big Oil capex plans, and macro conditions all point to discipline over scale. Is this maintenance disguised as stability? Read the full 2026 U.S. Oil Production Outlook.
Free Read – On Oil Glut and Sanctions
EIA projects inventory builds averaging 2.7–3.1 mb/d through 2027 as non-OPEC supply expands and demand growth remains modest. On paper, that's a glut. But geopolitics, sanctions, freight congestion, and grade mismatches complicate the picture. Does projected surplus translate into storage pressure and price weakness, or do supply flexibility and policy management prevent structural collapse? Read the full piece.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
Get Access to EFRACS: efracs.com