This week’s Monday Macro View answers something that no one is talking about. The EIA’s latest STEO shows U.S. oil production climbing to about 13.6 mbpd next year while the average price is projected to fall toward the mid-50s, roughly $55. That combination is unusual. Higher output typically requires firmer prices, yet the official outlook shows record production and softer pricing at the same time. This is where the FSC and FJC come into play. The Frac Spread Count has risen to 175 and the Frac Job Count to 207 (leaving the year-on-year gap at only eight). These figures measure the real work that brings new wells online. Our EFRACs platform shows both metrics steady over the next 52 weeks. That forward trend helps explain how the EIA can project higher supply even with lower prices. The activity that adds new barrels is still increasing, and operators are positioning for steady growth through 2025 and into 2026.
The latest Market Sentiment Tracker shows a slowing China, but not the kind of decline that would threaten global demand. The big drop in new loans comes from the property squeeze, not from a broad pullback in the real economy. Manufacturing still has support, industrial output is growing, and exports are stabilizing as China leans on new markets. It’s a softer backdrop, not a break in activity, and readers should pay attention because this shapes the demand side of the oil story. It explains why prices may stay under pressure even as supply rises, and why the market will continue to move in tight ranges unless China’s momentum improves.
The updates on Patterson UTI and TechnipFMC are worth a closer look because they show two very different sides of the industry moving with purpose. Patterson lays out how drilling and completions are holding steady even in a soft price environment, and why gas-focused fleets and new pumping systems are getting so much attention heading into 2026 with a growing subsea backlog and clearer visibility on next year’s awards. If you want to understand where the next pockets of activity and investment are forming, onshore efficiency gains, LNG-linked demand, or the long offshore buildout, both articles break those themes down in detail.
As we approach the end of 2025, the demand picture hinges on Asia. China’s slowdown is clear in the November data, but the country is still absorbing crude at a pace that matters, with October adding roughly 690,000 bpd to storage. The question now is whether that buying holds through winter, because Europe is soft, the U.S. consumer is cooling, and policy tightening is still moving through the system. If Asia keeps pulling barrels, the market can manage the steady rise in oil supply.
Special Announcement: Primary Vision, in collaboration with Bloomberg, will walk through the signals they’ve been tracking all year and explain how those pieces fit together.
If you follow the direction of the U.S. oil and gas industry, this session offers you something rare: a spotlight on key trends revealed through our proprietary tools, the Frac Spread Count and the Frac Job Count. These benchmarks provide the clearest view into activity levels, service intensity, and investment direction across the shale sector.
That’s why it’s worth signing up.
2025 into 2026: A Sleeping Giant
Live Webinar — December 10
10AM EST / 9AM CDT / 4PM CET
Link for registration: https://primaryvision.co/third-party-opinion/