Monday Macro View: Is the U.S. Frac Market Still Following Its Seasonal Playbook?
The Frac Spread Count fell 3 to 191 extending a near-6% slide since October 9. Across hundreds of weekly observations since 2014, December activity came in below October in 11 of 12 completed years through price collapses, recoveries, capital discipline and a pandemic. But the rig count hasn’t moved from 603 in three weeks. Is this the usual year-end adjustment, or something wider in upstream activity? Read this week’s MMV*.
Market Sentiment Tracker: Is One Industry Carrying the Whole Economy?
U.S. equipment spending rose 20.9% last quarter while payrolls added just 29,000, a combination that only makes sense when the expanding part of the economy barely hires. China’s electronics earnings more than doubled in September while traditional manufacturing lost money outright. Europe has the same demand failure without the investment leg to mask it. Why does growth keep narrowing to the construction and equipping of computing capacity and what happens to everything adjacent to it? Explore this week’s MST*.
Q3 Earnings: Can Halliburton Grow Without a North American Frac Recovery?
North American frac revenue fell 5% sequentially to $2.2 billion as crew transitions created more downtime than planned. Yet management expects international businesses to grow around 12% year over year in 2026, and says its 2027 plan assumes flat North American activity. With HAL trading near 8.8x trailing EV/EBITDA against a peer average of 12.9x, is the market pricing the international story at all? Read our Halliburton Q3 analysis.
BP: Can Portfolio Simplification Outrun a Softer Q4?
BP guided Q4 upstream production to 2.09–2.23 million boe/d, a midpoint implying a roughly 3% sequential decline on Middle East disruption and BPX phasing. Meanwhile Gelsenkirchen is sold, Castrol could generate around billions, and net debt plus hybrids, leases and Gulf of America settlement liabilities fell substantially. With the next strategic phase due December 15, how much of the story is divestment and how much is operations? Read our BP Q3 Take Three.
TechnipFMC & RPC: Where Is the Service Market Actually Tightening?
TechnipFMC expects at least $14.5 billion of Subsea inbound orders over the next five quarters and has initiated 2027 Subsea guidance of $10.0–$10.4 billion. RPC saw Coiled Tubing, Nitrogen and Snubbing each grow at double-digit rates but took a $74.5 million non-cash impairment on its Pintail wireline business. Why are offshore and selected completion lines firming while wireline economics deteriorate? Read our TechnipFMC and RPC Q3 Take Three breakdowns.*
Free Read: Why Does Understanding Oilfield Activity Matter More Than Ever?
ADIPEC 2026 recorded over 50,000 business deals worth an estimated $67 billion, up 26.4% on last year. But across 16 exhibition halls, one thing was obvious: a pump manufacturer, a chemical supplier and a wellhead maker each face completely different questions, and none of them is answered by the crude price. So what actually drives their demand? Read our latest free analysis.
Inside EFRACS: Why a Weekly Count Isn’t a Trend
EFRACS carries more than a decade of weekly Frac Spread Coun history alongside job-level detail, so you can separate a scheduling adjustment from a genuine change in direction. Are you reading the print, or the pattern? Explore the Frac Spread Count and many other modules plus our archives on EFRACS.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
Get Access to EFRACS: efracs.com