Monday Macro View - Shale starts to respond to higher prices
The Frac Spread Count came in at 166, up 7 on the week. What matters most in the near term is the directional shift. For months, the question hanging over U.S. shale was whether elevated oil prices would translate into a genuine acceleration of activity? We are seeing some signs. How is this manifesting in the U.S. shale patch? That is exactly what this week’s Monday Macro View** focuses upon.
Market Sentiment Tracker – there is no good news
The stagflation trap is becoming harder to argue away as far as the U.S. concerned. In Europe. PMI data this week exposes a continent splitting along a north-south and core-periphery fault line. But does the ECB has more room to cut than Fed? The gap between China's 5% growth target and its actual price dynamics is the central tension of 2026. Find answers to all these interesting question in this week’s Market Sentiment Tracker*
Shale Reset – Activity is no longer moving together
When we last mapped U.S. shale projects in Q3, activity was still moving broadly in sync. That alignment has now broken. Recent updates show operators concentrating capital into specific projects and basins, rather than expanding across the board. Why is this happening? What is driving this? Read this analysis* to find out more.
Free Read: Everything you need to know about Jet fuel
Ceasefire but a very fragile one. Will it hold? Will the Tehran toll system be a long term feature of oil markets? Oil goes up and down like a rollercoaster. This is a market that cannot make up its mind. Read more in this special free read.
Also, In Part I of our Jet Fuel series, we laid out why jet fuel has become one of the most structurally interesting commodities in the refining complex. In this second piece, we dig into the charts: what the data on U.S. supply, exports, and crack spreads actually shows, and what it means for the margin outlook heading into 2026 and beyond.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
Get Access to EFRACS: efracs.com