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U.S. Shale responds to higher prices
Apr 09, 2026The Frac Spread Count came in at 166, up 7 on the week. What matters most in the near term is the directional shift.
Our OFS ranking index is telling something
Apr 02, 2026Dallas Fed Energy survey just confirmed what Primary Vision’s data have been saying from past few months.
Market Sentiment Tracker: Bearish factors dominate the world economy
Mar 31, 2026The Richmond and KC Fed indices bouncing back from deeply negative readings look better than they are — both series mean-revert aggressively and carry almost no predictive weight for the next quarter. What actually deserves attention is the productivity-labour cost squeeze. Germany at 51.7 on manufacturing — beating a sub-50 consensus — is the week's most consequential European print, not because it resolves anything but because it pushes back the recession narrative by another month. Spain growing at 2.7% year-on-year reinforces what has been true for several quarters. China's data this week is too thin to draw a cycle conclusion, but the profit surge without a corresponding PMI beat is a classic late-cycle signal
Basin by Basin Trends, Special Reports
Mar 26, 2026Oil prices continue to increase. But how are basins behaving as a result? Do we see more activity in the Permian? What about those heavily weighted toward natural gas production?
What is Frac Utilization Rate?
Mar 19, 2026Frac Spread Count jumped by 2 and now stands at 172. Frac Job Count is also up. Both indicators have stayed on a recovery path since end of February.
Millions of barrels released but will prices fall?
Mar 12, 2026$30 up and $30 down - this has been one of the wildest swings in the history of oil markets.
Will Higher Oil Prices Drive More Drilling?
Mar 05, 2026Oil prices are surging but will operators actually drill more? Our analysis shows that duration matters far more than price magnitude for triggering an activity response.
Can U.S. Shale Maintain Momentum in 2026?
Feb 26, 2026FSC added 7 spreads week-over-week; FJC jumped as well. But here's the number that matters: early 2026 momentum is running at 2.6% versus just 1.0% last year more than double the pace.
Is the Strait of Hormuz Losing its Importance?
Feb 19, 2026FSC is up by 8 and FJC registered double digit gains.
Our Annual Report Sees Steady U.S. Production in 2026
Feb 12, 2026The U.S. shale peak narrative is back. In 2015–2016, similar data prompted identical conclusions, only for production to later exceed prior highs.
Did the Cold Expose U.S. Frac Activity?
Feb 05, 2026U.S. frac activity recorded one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months, with both frac spreads and job counts falling by 15 week over week.
Is U.S. Shale Ready to Go Global?
Jan 29, 2026Frac spreads and jobs moved higher again, narrowing the year-on-year gap.
Market Sentiment Tracker: China met its GDP target. What comes next?
Jan 27, 2026China’s latest national accounts were released against a backdrop of heightened scrutiny, as the economy once again delivered growth in line with official objectives. Full-year GDP expanded by 5.0 percent year on year, while fourth-quarter growth moderated to 4.5 percent. In this article we are going to evaluate the source of these indicators of growth and how it is currently being generated and where pressure is being absorbed.
What Does the Latest Data Say About Shale Activity?
Jan 22, 2026The Frac Spread Count rose to 160. Frac job activity has now returned to where it stood this time last year, once again reinforcing the theme of resiliency in U.S. Shale.
U.S. shale production hits another record high in October and is there a shale revolution happening in China?
Jan 15, 2026This week’s Monday Macro View shows that the recent dip in completions was largely seasonal rather than structural, with Frac Spread Count rising by 3 spreads week over week and Frac Job Count also registering a decent increase.
How much investment is required for Venezuelan oil revival?
Jan 08, 2026Welcome to the first newsletter of 2026. Monday Macro View opens the year in a controlled range. Frac Spread Count came in at 153, down one week over week, while Frac Job Count eased extending a late-2025 pattern.
Key Lessons from U.S. Shale Heading Into 2026
Dec 31, 2025This is the last newsletter of 2025, and it offers some clear insights into what we learned from shale this year.
Horsepower Will Drive the Next Phase of Efficiency
Dec 18, 2025This week’s newsletter comes absolutely packed and if you’ve been following the market closely, you’re going to love it. From horsepower-driven shifts in U.S. shale to Europe’s quiet growth problem
FSC and FJC consistent with U.S. record high production in September
Dec 11, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, the latest field data shows U.S. shale maintaining record-high September output at 13.844 mb/d, outperforming the November STEO by 59 kb/d.
Efficiency Gains Are the New Catchphrase in U.S. Shale. What Do They Really Entail?
Dec 04, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we start with a brief but necessary clarification of what last week’s activity data actually tells us.
Shale Completions Rise Above Last Year, Signaling Strength Into 2026
Nov 27, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View further cemented the strength that the U.S. shale industry has shown even as oil prices continue to fall.
How Can U.S. Production Hit 13.6 mbpd With Oil at $55?
Nov 20, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View answers something that no one is talking about.
What EIA, Primary Vision, and OFS Results Have in Common? A Positive Outlook for Shale
Nov 13, 2025The week’s Monday Macro View focused on the latest EIA data that claims that the base decline rate of horizontal wells keeps steepening, forcing operators to drill more just to hold production steady.
Special Report: What Does Breakeven Actually Mean?
Nov 06, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View we decode our latest weekly report along with other important developments. U.S. completion activity remains remarkably steady, with the Frac Spread Count hovering around 175 for the past month.
Understanding Breakevens, Part One: Laying the Groundwork for a Misunderstood Idea
Nov 04, 2025Everyone talks about “breakevens” in oil but almost no one agrees on what the word actually means. Is it $15, $60, or $90 a barrel? The truth is, all those numbers can be right and completely different. In this first part of our series, we strip the term down to its fundamentals and reveal why “breakeven” has become one of the most misunderstood ideas in global energy markets. Before diving into the spreadsheets and investor decks, it’s time to ask a simple but powerful question: what does breakeven really mean — and why does it matter now more than ever?
U.S. Frac Gains Steady as Sanctions Cloud the Elusive Oil Glut
Oct 30, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View showed Frac activity is quietly but unmistakably firming across U.S. shale basins, signaling that operators may be positioning for a stronger Q4 finish than consensus expects.
Has Shale Finally Learned to Live with $50 Oil?
Oct 23, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View we explore “The $50 Oil Shock That Shale Shrugged Off,” a story about resilience more than price.
Will Trade Tensions Undermine U.S. Energy’s Winning Streak?
Oct 16, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View the question isn’t whether U.S. oil output can stay high—it’s what kind of strain that strength can withstand.
Can Record U.S. Output and China’s Buying Keep Oil Markets in Balance?
Oct 09, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View we discuss how U.S. oil production continues to challenge expectations. July’s output hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day, prompting the EIA to lift its forecast for both 2025 and 2026 to 13.5 million.
UPDATED: The Hidden Strength in U.S. Oil — and What Markets Are Missing
Oct 02, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we cut through the gloomy headlines to show why U.S. oil’s future looks stronger than the Dallas Fed survey suggests.
Will U.S. Completions Counter OPEC+ Flows?
Sep 25, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we’re watching how U.S. shale is leaning harder on completions to keep production steady just as OPEC+ barrels start flooding back into the market.
Will Fed Rate Cuts Rescue Oil Demand?
Sep 18, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, the data offered a reminder that oil markets rarely move in straight lines.
Surplus Clouds Oil’s Autumn Outlook
Sep 11, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we returned to the theme of balance — or imbalance — in oil markets.
Is Diesel the Real Floor Under Oil? Also: Don’t forget to Register for Third Party Opinion
Sep 04, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we look at oil’s unexpected floor. Brent has climbed 15% since May to around $68, even as OPEC+ restored supply.
Special Announcement: Don’t Miss the Third Party Opinion Session
Aug 28, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we turn our attention to natural gas liquids — often overlooked, but increasingly central to shale economics.
What happens to U.S. oil if prices remain lower for longer?
Aug 21, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View*, we asked a hard question: how long can efficiency gains keep U.S. oil production afloat in the face of soft prices?
Mexico’s Shale Dream – Real Momentum or Just More Talk?
Aug 07, 2025In this week’s Monday Macro View, we zoom in on one of the most tantalizing but underdeveloped stories in global energy: Mexico’s shale potential.
Basin Trends Reveal U.S. Completion Insights
Jul 31, 2025This week our Mondy Macro View for our Enterprise Subscribers look at the FJC and FSC numbers by Shale basins.
Why Are U.S. Inventories Tight While Global Stocks Rise?
Jul 10, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View* dives into the growing divergence between U.S. and global oil inventories—and how our Frac Job Count helps explain it.
Is the Oil Sector Slowing Down or Just Waiting for a Signal?
Jul 03, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View takes on the big question: is the global oil and gas sector deteriorating or just recalibrating?
Is the Oil Market Already Looking Past the War?
Jun 26, 2025The war is over and oil is in free fall. Brent is down to $67 and WTI is hovering around $64, shedding nearly 10% in just a few days.
What’s Really Behind the Oil Rally? It’s Not Just the Middle East
Jun 19, 2025This week’s Monday Macro View* explores the top five forces driving oil prices higher—because no, it’s not just the Israel–Iran headlines.
PV UPDATE: OPEC+ Is Pumping More—Will U.S. Shale Blink?
Jun 12, 2025OPEC+ is ramping up supply again—adding over 400,000 barrels per day each month into July—and the market expects U.S. shale to follow.
PV UPDATE: Are We Building Too Many Electric Fleets Too Fast?
Jun 05, 2025This week, we are shifting the lens slightly. Instead of watching the ground (basins), we're watching the gear (technology).
PV UPDATE: Is This the Start of a Slowdown in U.S. Shale?
May 29, 2025Last week we talked about cracks forming beneath the surface of oilfield activity.
PV UPDATE: Is the Uinta Already Past Its Tipping Point?
May 22, 2025Last week we touched on the growing disconnect between oil prices and field activity.
PV UPDATE: Can Falling Frac Jobs Trigger a Price Rebound?
May 15, 2025Last week we redefined what Tier 1 really means in a shale world that’s running out of easy answers.
PV UPDATE: If Everything Is Tier 1, What Comes Next?
May 08, 2025Keeping in line with the last week’s theme, in this week’s Monday Macro View*, we explore how geology alone can’t explain well performance in 2025.
PV UPDATE: When Tier 1 Runs Dry: What’s Next for Shale?
Apr 30, 2025Every shale boom rests on a foundation — but what happens when that foundation starts to thin?
PV UPDATE: What’s Standing Between Shale and Its Next Boom?
Apr 24, 2025The U.S. shale sector is entering a new phase—defined less by how much oil can be drilled and more by how smartly it can be completed.