At the start of the year, the U.S. upstream story felt easy to explain.
More frac jobs.
More efficiency.
Record production in 2025, even as tariffs, economic pressure, and macro headwinds intensified.
But beneath the surface, something was changing.
In Q1, we said something simple:
Frac equipment was destined to go to other continents.
At the time, it wasn’t consensus.
It wasn’t obvious.
But the signal was there.
And then it happened.
Halliburton secured a multibillion dollar contract with Argentina’s YPF to deploy fracturing services in Vaca Muerta, one of the largest shale basins outside North America. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/halliburton-wins-multibillion-dollar-ypf-contract-in-argentina?embedded-checkout=true
That is not just a headline.
That is equipment moving.
We showed where it was going, who was driving it, and how the international unconventional market was beginning to compete with the U.S. for capacity.
From Argentina to the Middle East, the shift is now visible.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/halliburtons-asset-sale-halt-paves-150500662.html
Signals into reality. Again.
After years of unprecedented efficiency gains, the system is evolving again.
This is no longer a clean, linear cycle.
Equipment is moving.
Utilization is shifting.
Availability could be tightening in material ways.
At the same time, operators are changing how they think.
Growth is no longer the only objective.
Capital discipline is real.
Optionality matters more than scale.
The result is a market sending mixed signals.
Strong production.
Shifting activity.
Unclear direction.
Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz.
A market pushed to the edge.
At one point, the Strait was effectively shut down.
Then reopened.
Then disrupted again.
Ships turned around.
Flows stalled.
Markets reacted in real time.
This is not theoretical.
It’s still happening. The story is still fluid.
A significant portion of global oil supply moves through that chokepoint, and even partial disruption sent immediate shockwaves through pricing and sentiment.
Oil volatility returned.
Confidence was tested.
And the idea of stable supply was challenged again.
The question now is bigger than the event itself.
Are we moving back toward stability?
Or did this expose how fragile the system really is?
Because beneath all the noise, one truth is becoming harder to ignore:
Hydrocarbons are not going away.
If anything, recent events reinforced how dependent the global system still is on reliable oil flows.
They are directly influencing pricing, capital flows, and U.S. decision-making.
Will this period of disruption lead to a new phase of stability?
The biggest shifts are already underway.
Activity is adjusting.
Capacity is being rebalanced.
Expectations are changing.
https://efracs.primaryvision.co/press/?slug=e229f54759b28de078bf8e31979b6255
And now, a new force is entering the system.
AI infrastructure.
Data center expansion.
A new demand layer for power and energy that is beginning to reshape long-term expectations across the broader market.
At the same time, premium frac capacity across the Permian continues tightening as demand shifts toward Tier IV DGB and electric fleets, while legacy diesel equipment remains unevenly utilized.
https://efracs.primaryvision.co/press/?slug=029ac7f827bd876055954473db8bd4be
Activity across the Eagle Ford and greater Western Gulf region is also accelerating sharply, signaling broader underlying demand strength heading into the second half of the year.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is half of its peak.
What does this all mean?
Join our Third Party Opinion webinar with Bloomberg on June 23rd to find out.
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Third Party Opinion does not follow market narratives. It tests them.
Every session is built on one principle: Measurable signals matter more than headlines.
Earlier this year, we said equipment was leaving the United States. Then it did.
We tracked the shift as fleets moved internationally, with capital pulling capacity into markets like Argentina and beyond, and it played out exactly as we expected.
At the same time, the Frac Job Count continued to cut through noise, signaling underlying completion strength despite tariffs, macro pressure, and negative sentiment, ultimately aligning with record U.S. production.
We have consistently separated headlines from reality, explaining what changes in the Frac Spread Count actually mean for utilization, capacity, and pricing. Oh and we’ll cover the efficiency game too, providing you a to the month update!
These are not isolated trends. They are reshaping the global fracking narrative.
Third Party Opinion is where operators, investors, and analysts step back from the noise to understand what is actually happening.
The signals are there. The question is whether they are interpreted correctly.
Join the session and see the shift before it becomes the headline.
