Monday Macro View: U.S. Completions Near Annual Highs
Primary Vision's latest Frac Spread Count (FSC) increased by seven to 203 for the week ending October 9, just two spreads below its 2026 peak. National completion activity has recovered approximately 14% in five weeks, while the U.S. rig count has climbed to 603. Yet the recovery is far from uniform. Which regions are driving the latest gains, why are completions growing faster than drilling, and can the industry sustain this momentum into 2027? This week’s MMV can be read here.*
Frac Efficiency Takes Center Stage in U.S. Shale
America's active frac fleet is substantially smaller than it was several years ago, yet completion activity has proved more resilient. Primary Vision's Frac Efficiency Index (FEI) tracks this changing relationship between active spreads and completed jobs. But does a higher efficiency reading always mean better productivity? What separates genuine operational improvements from simple fleet reductions, and how much more can the industry accomplish without adding capacity? Read the full analysis here.*
Free Read: Can We Talk About Gold, Please?
Gold stood near $4,152 an ounce on October 14, down sharply from its January peak, despite the ongoing Middle East conflict and renewed inflation concerns. History offers some surprising comparisons: gold surged during the 1979 oil shock, initially struggled during the 2008 financial crisis, and rallied following the pandemic. Why isn't geopolitical uncertainty lifting gold today? And could rising U.S. Treasury yields eventually become a reason to own gold rather than avoid it? Read the full analysis.
Market Sentiment Tracker: Why Is the Fed Hiking Into 29,000 Jobs?
The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, yet the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as one-year inflation expectations reached 3.9%. Across the Atlantic, euro-area inflation has climbed to 3.8%, while China faces a different problem altogether. Three major economies are responding to the same energy shock from very different starting points. Is monetary policy containing inflation or risking a deeper slowdown? And which economy is best positioned to withstand another prolonged energy disruption? More to read in this week’s MST.*
Shale Activity in 2026: Tracking the Basin and Operator Movements
U.S. shale activity is becoming increasingly uneven. Some operators are maintaining or expanding completion programs, while others are adjusting development schedules and capital priorities. Regional trends also conceal important differences between individual companies. Which operators are gaining momentum, where is activity beginning to diverge, and what do these changes reveal about oilfield service demand heading into 2027? The full piece is accessible here.*
The Efficiency Improvement Is Becoming a Basin-Level Story
Completion efficiency is improving across U.S. shale, but the underlying drivers are not the same everywhere. Fleet rationalization, equipment quality, completion intensity and operator concentration are changing how much work the active frac fleet can handle. Could some regions sustain completion volumes with fewer spreads? And what happens to those efficiency gains if oil prices weaken and operators begin adjusting their development programs? Read this fresh and insightful analysis here.*
From operator-level shifts to county-level completion trends, EFRACS tracks where U.S. shale activity is changing before those changes appear in production.
If You’re Still Relying on Lagging Data, You’re Already Behind. EFRACS shows where activity is moving before production reacts.
Get Access to EFRACS: efracs.com