Monday Macro View – Where Could Venezuela Pull U.S. HHP From?
Frac Spread Count came in at 180, down four for the week but up 18 from a year ago, while the rig count held at 588. Those weekly moves look like noise inside a stable range - the real story is Venezuela, where a new U.S. framework could open a 17-field, 1.5 million bbl/d service market. Primary Vision's HHP data shows a meaningful share of marketed U.S. capacity currently sitting idle, which raises the question of who has the headroom to move fast. We dug into which U.S. players stand to benefit most if this framework advances. Read this week's MMV.*
Market Sentiment Tracker – Higher Rates or a Shorter War?
PCE inflation ran at 3.7% in July, well above target, with markets now pricing better than 65% odds of a September hike. At the same time the 10-year Treasury has climbed above 4.75% and the federal deficit is on track for roughly $1.9 trillion this year a combination that makes further tightening more expensive than in past cycles. Could winding down the Iran war do more for yields than another Fed move? Read this week's Market Sentiment Tracker.*
This Week's Takeaways: NOV & TechnipFMC
NOV: Management flagged tight global service capacity pulling capital equipment demand forward, with North American share gains led by private operators and Middle East visibility still the swing factor. Q3 Energy Products and Services revenue is guided up 5–7% year over year. Can equipment tightness translate into a stronger 2027 before geopolitics gets in the way? Read more.*
TechnipFMC: The company raised full-year EBITDA guidance to roughly $2.19 billion and returned 95% of first-half free cash flow to shareholders, while betting on accelerating Subsea order growth into 2027. Is the $10 billion 2026 inbound order target still achievable if second-half awards slip? Read more here.*
OFS Earnings Part 2 – Growth Is Broadening Beyond North American Completions
International revenue outgrew North America across Halliburton and SLB in Q2, offshore and project-based work delivered outsized operating leverage at TechnipFMC and NOV, and Baker Hughes posted record IET orders. Is the oilfield services cycle quietly becoming a multi-engine story instead of a single completions bet? Read the full analysis.*
Pressure Pumping Ranking Q2 2026 – Tightening Capacity
Liberty Energy holds the top spot as capacity tightens, while Halliburton strengthens into a clearer second. The bigger move is further down the board, where two names posted the largest score improvements of the quarter as utilization and pricing reshuffled the field. Is execution alone enough to hold your ranking when everyone's capacity is getting scarcer? Read the full ranking.*
Free Read: How Does This End?
Japan's 10-year yield crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, the U.S. 10-year has moved toward 5%, and long-term borrowing costs are climbing across Europe and the UK at the same time. Five past global bond selloffs - 1994, Japan in 1998–99, 2003, the 2013 taper tantrum, and 2022 - each had a distinct driver, from Fed tightening to fiscal fear to withdrawn central-bank support. This time, several of those pressures look present at once. Read the full piece.
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